Susan A. MacManus is the Distinguished University Professor of Public Administration and Political Science in the Department of Government and International Affairs at the University of South Florida. She is nationally renowned for her insight into political matters in Florida. She was the political analyst for WFLA News Channel 8 during the 2000 and 2002 elections, and will do so again this year. MacManus will be writing an exclusive weblog for TBO.com throughout the 2004 election year.
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Goodbye, Now

WASHINGTON - What more fitting place and time for this Blogger to say “Goodbye” than from the nation’s capital the day before the newly-re-elected president gives the first State of the Union address of his second term.

A big “thank you” goes to the crew at TBO.com for their help and encouragement on the blog, and to the news team at WFLA News Channel 8 for having me as their political analyst throughout the exciting Election 2004 season. Thanks, too, to each of you who have found the Political Web Log to be of interest in helping you understand the complex, but exciting politics of the Sunshine State.

Few academics have had the opportunity to witness even one headline-making political event first hand. This past election year alone, I have been in the thick of things at many - appearances by Democratic candidates running in the presidential primary, the national party conventions in Boston and New York City, protests in the street in both convention cities, the Reagan funeral, two presidential debates (Miami, Phoenix), the vice presidential debate (Cleveland), Bush and Kerry rallies in Tampa, and the presidential inauguration festivities in Washington, D.C. For these extraordinary opportunities, from which much has been learned, I will remain eternally grateful to WFLA and TBO.com.

May each of you who reads this farewell continue your quest to be more informed about our political process and how it plays out in our great state of Florida. Signing off now. Your political blogger, Susan A. MacManus University of South Florida

WASHINGTON - It’s Friday morning. Washington is back to work. Floridians have packed all their multiple sets of clothes and inaugural souvenirs and are headed home. It is a trip few will ever forget, thanks to the memories. The 2004 election is now in the history books.

Here's a little recap of Thursday's happenings.

Inauguration Day saw Floridians changing clothes about as often as a teenager with a gift certificate in a fashionable clothing store. From jeans and sweaters, to ball gowns and tuxedos - all in the space of 12 hours!

At breakfast, it was obvious that they took the President’s advice to “bundle up” to heart. You would hardly have recognized some of them, with their multiple layers of clothing, snow boots, hats, gloves, and blankets. (Is there really a Floridian underneath all that?) They were ready…Nothing was going to stop them from witnessing what they worked so hard for, George Bush taking the oath of office for a second term.

It was a low-key breakfast but not without its politicians. Attorney General Charlie Crist made his appearance, completing the “trifecta” of GOP’ers who have made it well known they’d like to be Governor after Jeb. (Crist was preceded by Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher and Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings.) Party Chairwoman Carole Jean Jordan did her best over the past couple of days to give each of them an equal opportunity to sway these movers and shakers.

State Sen. Tom Lee, Speaker of the Florida House from Brandon, was the host of the morning chow-down. On the heels of a standing ovation, he laid out the challenge ahead — recruiting city council members, county commissioners, and school board members to run for the Florida House. With term limits, the job of recruiting credible candidates has become more important. (Just ask the Florida Democrats.)

The whole event exceeded the expectations of all who endured the hassles of crowded subway trains, buses that didn’t exactly get close to the Capitol, and insufficient numbers of security officials in place to check people through in a timely fashion. Perhaps it was the arrival of the Floridians that caused the sun to break through and the weather to warm a bit. The conditions at the time of the inauguration were about as perfect as one could hope for.

Flags flying, military musicians trumpeting the sounds of America’s patriotic songs, former presidents and first ladies, current members of Congress, the nation’s governors, and other dignitaries appearing on huge screens as they made their grand entrances — all were inspiring and uplifting. But it was the President taking the oath of office from a clearly ill but determined Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist that will be the most long-lasting memory for the thousands who saw and heard it first hand.

The president’s inaugural address reminding Americans of the very basic values on which this country was founded was very inspiring to those who heard it. One’s belief in individual freedoms, especially of speech and assembly, was put to test almost immediately following the address. Thousands, including many Floridians, were unable to get to their reserved and paid-for parade seats as surges of protestors prompted security sites to be shut down. With little alternative, most simply grumbled, then went back to the hotel and watched the parade on TV. (It was warmer there anyway.)

What better way to end a long, but glorious day, than to attend the Inaugural Ball. Floridians danced at the Liberty Ball in the Washington Convention Center. The old-hands skipped the food and drink. They quickly positioned themselves in front of the stage and podium where President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and their wives would wow them with words and slow dances. This was the most “up close and personal” opportunity that most Floridians would have to see them and according to those who stood two hours to do so, it was well worth it. There was time later to eat, drink, and be merry.

George W. wasn’t the only popular Bush at the ball. Gov. Jeb Bush was swarmed with autograph seekers and Floridians wanting a photograph with him. Sitting among journalists from all over the country, and world, I once again got bombarded with the perennial question “Is Jeb going to run for President in 2008?” The real story, though, may be Jeb’s son, George P. although he surely will not run in 2008. A Fox News Channel television crew came to interview “P,” not Jeb. (Better get some good file footage well in advance!)

WASHINGTON - Florida Republicans started their Wednesday Victory Breakfast with scrambled eggs and a buffet of politics. Former U.S. Rep. Joe Scarborough, now of MSNBC fame, peppered a panel composed of pollsters, pundits, and politicians with questions about Election 2004 and beyond. Political analyst Charles Cook gave these early-risers a pat on the back for what he said was “the best designed, best planned, and best executed campaign in history.” For the second election cycle in a row, Republicans beat Democrats at the Get-Out-the-Vote game.

It wasn’t all peaches and cream. The panelists sprinkled a dash of realism throughout their conservations, reminding the euphoric victors that nothing ever stays the same, particularly if a party gets arrogant and complacent. Several specific policy-related concerns were raised: Will efforts to revamp Social Security be damaging to Republicans in the mid-term congressional elections in 2006? Is President Bush’s second term agenda overly ambitious and if so, will it enable Democrats to play the “gotcha” card in the next election cycle?

The entrepreneurial spirit always seems to surface at major political gatherings. A few steps down the corridor from the breakfast was a young man with unofficial souvenirs for sale. Want a t-shirt bearing the message “I love my ABCs: America, Bush, & Cheney” in red, white, and blue? How about a large cup bearing Kerry’s likeness posing the question “Who would vote for this ugly mug?” How much will it be? For one, $10. For both, just $20. (What a deal!).

The Grand Café in the Grand Hyatt Hotel was a hot spot for members of the Grand Old Party to congregate at the end of a miserably cold day. What better way to warm your spirits than to have your photo taken with “W” in the oval office…even if he was a stand-in ringer? The line was long but as one candid soul told me: “I did it because it was a fun way to make standing around at yet another cocktail party bearable.”

Florida parties always seem to have a universal appeal. Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings, an oft-mentioned likely candidate for governor in 2006, made her grand entry no doubt in search of supporters. A BBC television crew meandered through the crowd mostly just shooting Florida Republicans talking to each other. The primary question on their reporter’s mind was what Republicans expect of George W. Bush in his second term. (Party leaders were relieved it wasn’t yet another story about the 2000 election.) A New Yorker came to the gathering wanting to gain some insights into how the GOP won Florida so handily. “Whatever you did right in Florida this time, you ought to write a book about it, and send a million copies to New York. We could use it,” he admitted.

One more day to go and it will be the grandest of them all for these partying Republicans.

WASHINGTON - Greetings from the only woman in Washington who doesn’t have a fur coat — or so it seems! I’m here covering the presidential inaugural events for WFLA-TV and TBO.com.

The Real “W” is the Weather. Florida Republicans in Washington for the inauguration of George W. Bush see “Ws” everywhere they turn in honor of the President. But the “W” dominating most of the conversations is the weather. It’s wickedly cold and snowing heavily leaving many to ask, “Why hold such an important event in the middle of January?" I can’t tell you the number of GOP’ers from Florida who have admitted they have had to borrow winter garb from their friends or relatives from colder climates!

The Florida Sequins & Stars Ball
No need to wait until Thursday’s inaugural balls to party. Florida GOP’ers started their celebration with a black tie ball Tuesday evening at the fancy Sequoia Restaurant overseeing the Georgetown Waterfront. While there were lots of sequins, there were even more stars — mostly of the political type.

If one had any doubts of Florida’s celestial star power in the universe of Republican politics, they were erased by the appearances of prominent politicians from other states. By far the biggest round of applause was for newly-elected Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, who handily defeated long-time Democratic nemesis, Sen. Tom Daschle. Along those lines, one could almost hear a primal scream from these Florida Republicans when someone announced that Florida’s Democratic delegates to the DNC had unanimously endorsed Howard Dean for national party chair.

Fly Me To The Moon
Speaking of space, Sequins and Stars ball attendees were “lobbied” by an Arlington, Virginia firm--Space Adventures--whose plan it is to offer private citizens the opportunity to buy a ride into space. The price tag for such a thrill will range from $10,000 to millions, depending upon the type of space vehicle you fly in and the distance you travel. Former astronaut Buzz Aldrin was there as a supporting cast and, of course, for photo-ops.

Nobody knows better than these hard core party activists that as soon as one election is over, it’s on to the next. For some in the crowd, like Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, it is no secret that he is planning to run for governor. He is omnipresent. The more intriguing guessing game is centered on the U.S. Senate. When U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris walked into the ballroom, she drew reporters like sweet orange blossoms attract bees. Each tried their best to get her to give a definitive “yes” that she will run for the U.S. Senate against Democrat Bill Nelson in 2006. She didn’t bite but clearly left the door open. One thing is certain — for the politically ambitious, it is always better to be present than absent at high profile events attended by the party faithful.

Many in town for the inaugural festivities have been here before. For all those who were here in 2000, they share one strong sentiment — “Thank God Florida wasn’t close in 2004!” But the most uplifting reactions, at least for this college professor, have come from young college students who are attending their first such event. At the Tuesday night gala, I literally bumped in to a tall, handsome young man - Jimmy Viers, a recent graduate of Florida State University where he majored in political science. Naturally, I just had to ask him what he liked best about it all. A recent graduate of Florida State and a political science major, he said the biggest thrill was “to be a part of history, to experience in person what I have only studied about. It’s the chance of a lifetime.” (I can already tell that this town and politics in general is getting in his blood!)

For the Florida Democratic Party:

1. Will Betty Castor’s not too well-disguised decision to run for governor fend off other Democrats? Will she be able to break into that tough, but fast-growing northwestern panhandle region of the state where Democrats have been losing by big margins in recent elections?
2. Will the state party get serious about going after the Hispanic vote (but with some new faces and fresh approaches)?
3. Is the party leadership serious about building a bench of good candidates to run for the state legislature in 2006? A number of localities hold their municipal elections in the off-year, starting this January. Political analysts will be watching for signs that the Florida Democratic Party really means what it says about building a strong bench via local elections that enable it to field credible and competitive legislative candidates in 2006. Or will the party push harder for a constitutional amendment to make redistricting the responsibility of an independent commission rather than of the state legislature now firmly controlled by the GOP? The premise of the latter strategy is that it will make legislative districts more competitive than safe partisan havens.
4. Will Florida Democrats finally get wise and push the national party to abandon New Hampshire and Iowa as the start places for the presidential nominating process? Why not push Florida? It’s a much more logical start point.
5. Who will run for the three Cabinet posts? So far, several fairly established Democrats have leaked word of their interest only to walk away when the press came calling.
6. Will the environment finally resurface as a big issue? Will talk of oil-drilling off the Florida coast (even if it is by some Democrats in Congress like Mary Landrieu of Louisiana) be enough to revive this waning issue?
7. Will Social Security reform be the issue that woos “soft Republican” senior and Boomer voters back to the Democratic fold? Or will it chase away the younger voters who are just now trending back toward the Democrats?
8. Will Democrats in Florida move to the middle or further left?
9. How will Sen. Bill Nelson bolster his ratings among the Florida electorate? Can he attract out-of-state money to the degree that Betty Castor was able to do so in her close race with Mel Martinez? The GOP has already identified this race as one of its targets in 2006…and certain religious conservative leaders have identified him as one of six “immoral” U.S. Senators who will be targeted by family values supporters.
10. Are statewide top-of-the-ticket races (governor, president, U.S. Senate) really winnable for Florida Democrats anymore?

For the Republican Party of Florida

1. How much does “lame duck” status negatively impact legislative (and public) approval of the policy priorities of: (a) President Bush; and (b) Gov. Jeb Bush?
2. How long into 2005 will it take before Cabinet officials who have their eyes on the governor’s mansion – Atty. Gen. Charlie Christ, Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher — start: (a) being less cooperative with Gov. Jeb Bush on various state issues that come before the Cabinet; and (b) bantering with each other for media attention. The stepped-up incidence of public appearances and policy pronouncements is already quite noticeable.
3. Will the GOP leadership treat Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings’ political aspirations seriously and recognize the vital role she plays in fending off Democratic attacks on the GOP’s lack of diversity? More importantly, will Gov. Jeb Bush put his powerful electoral machinery behind her candidacy or will he not take sides in what is likely to be messy and contentious GOP primary slug-fest?
4. Will the Governor and the Florida Legislature be able to tackle the increasingly powerful and thorny issue of growth management? A close look at the major issues in local county and city elections shows that the state’s population is increasingly becoming anti-growth. Early polls show that a proposed constitutional amendment cleverly labeled Hometown Democracy would pass overwhelmingly. But many state and local officials believe it could be devastating to the state’s continued economic and job growth.
5. Will the GOP-controlled Legislature really do something about the constitutional amendment process?
6. Will the Social Security issue reverse the trend of younger seniors voting Republican in Florida?
7. Can the Party continue to make in-roads into the Jewish vote if domestic issues replace foreign policy as top priorities of the American electorate?
8. What can the party do to bring back younger and independent voters?
9. Will the party continue to build its bench or has it become complacent now that it pretty much controls the whole show in Tally?
10. Will the press ever let go of handicapping a Jeb Bush: (a) run for president in 2008; (b) run for the U.S. Senate in 2006 against Sen. Bill Nelson, and (c) appointment by his brother to a position in the president’s Cabinet (a la the Kennedys)?

It’s that time of year...time to reflect and put things in perspective. Here is my list of the Top 10 election-related stories in Florida.

1. George W. Bush beats John F. Kerry by a wider-than-expected margin. From the beginning of the campaign right up to Election Day, Florida was seen as a dead heat state — one of the three big battlegrounds (Ohio & Pennsylvania being the others). No poll showed Bush beating Kerry by 5 points in Florida, yet he did. While most media attention had focused on the Get Out The Vote efforts of 527 groups like America Coming Together and MoveOn.org, the Republican Party of Florida won the turnout battle hands down. (The RPOF also won the voter registration battle over the four year period following Election 2000.)

2. Hurricanes hit Florida in late summer. Floridians traditionally ignore politics in the summer. It was then that a record number of massive hurricanes unleashed their fury on the Sunshine State. The storms actually allowed the President to get Floridians’ attention through his “non-political” trips to comfort residents in time of distress. It didn’t hurt that Governor Bush was everywhere as well. The proof is in the pudding. Although the hurricanes hit heavily Republican areas hardest, voter turnout in those counties did not fall dramatically — a testament to the effectiveness of the Bush brothers hurricane recovery efforts.

3. Republicans win all 5 open U.S. Senate seats in the South previously held by Democrats-- including Sen. Bob Graham’s seat in Florida. In retrospect, Sen. Kerry surely regrets the statement he made early in his campaign that winning the South wasn’t all that critical. Even choosing a southerner, John Edwards of North Carolina, as his running mate couldn’t convince many southern state voters to vote for Democrats in the high profile U.S. Senate races. Kerry had no coat tails in the South and it ended up hurting the Democratic Party, which lost seats in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. The GOP’s proudest victory? Electing Hispanic Mel Martinez to Sen. Graham’s U.S. Senate seat.

4. The nation mourns the death of President Ronald Reagan. The state funeral drew massively larger-than-expected crowds to Washington. The reflections on the life and policies of Reagan reminded the country of the role of Americans in promoting freedom around the world. This theme became a major part of President Bush’ re-election campaign, especially as it related to the War in Iraq and the successes in Afghanistan. The throngs who drove long distances to Washington and stood for hours in the hot summer sun to view Reagan lying in state in the Capitol rotunda came from the heartland of America — the very red states that became redder for Bush in 2004. After all, it was Reagan who figured out how to capture the votes of conservative Democrats as well as Republicans. There are plenty of Reagan Democrats in Florida, especially in the panhandle. That region went heavily for Bush.

5. The Passion of the Christ wins the culture war over Fahrenheit 9/11. The national media missed this one, too. With its fixation on all the Hollywood celebrities, including Michael Moore and his Fahrenheit 9/11 film, the press ignored the record crowds pouring into movie theatres across America to see the Passion of the Christ. In doing so, the media was caught off guard when exit polls showed moral values to be among the most important reasons why Americans chose the presidential candidate they did. In Florida, the GOP was highly successful at mobilizing the religious conservative vote.

6. The Swift Boat Veterans For Truth ads capture more attention than the ads by MoveOn.org and America Coming Together. Again, the press focused most of its attention on the 527 groups on the left — primarily because MoveOn and ACT raised more money and ran more ads. But the ad run by a 527 group on the right, the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, ended up swaying the public more. Post-election focus groups have identified the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ad featuring large numbers of Vietnam veterans expressing their opposition to Kerry in their own words as the most powerful ad of the 2004 election cycle. There are a lot of veterans in Florida who strongly identified with the Swift Boat veterans.

7. Americans choose their media to match their ideology. Election 2004 will go down in campaign memoirs as the first presidential election in which Americans chose the media they would watch/read/listen to on the basis of their own ideological predispositions. When the Fox News Channel began outdrawing the more traditional cable media giant CNN, it was a clear sign that red state America was on the rise. This viewing pattern held true for Floridians. The scandal at CBS’s 60 Minutes program in the waning days of the presidential campaign was the final straw. It reinforced a large segment of Americans’ views that the national media was biased in favor of Sen. Kerry.

8. The clout of the Bloggers (Weblog “reporters”) increases as the campaign escalates. When the political parties each agreed to credential bloggers at their national conventions, you knew a new medium had risen in stature. When regular newscasters and reporters turned in to bloggers (like ABC’s THE NOTE) and routinely logged on to the Drudge Report web site, they did so fearing that they would be scooped. They often were as was the case with CBS’s use of controversial, forged documents in its 60 Minutes program attacking George Bush’s national guard service. (See number 7 above.)

9. Laura Bush is far more effective on the campaign trail than Teresa Heinz Kerry. Laura Bush helped her husband considerably among women. Focus groups revealed that when she appeared in ads with President Bush, his support levels went up. Polls also showed that among the public at-large, Laura Bush had higher favorable ratings than Teresa Heinz Kerry. The frequent appearances of Laura Bush in Florida helped George W. improve his standing among the state’s women voters by 5% (Bush 2000-45%; Bush in 2004-50% to Kerry’s 49%).

10. Hispanics outnumber African Americans at polls in Florida for first time. This is one of the most significant political outcomes in Florida history. While Democrats and Republicans fought hard for the Hispanic vote, the GOP won it. Over half (56%) of the state’s Hispanic voters cast their ballots for George W. Bush. While African Americans still voted heavily John Kerry (86%), the state’s black population is not growing at the same rate as the Latino population. Also not a good sign for Democrats, a higher percentage of blacks voted for Bush in 2004 than in 2000 (13% v. 7%--a 6% gain).

Happy New Year to each of you.

Now it’s on to 2005—when the attention of political junkies will quickly turn to some sure-to-be-big 2006 races—for governor, the Cabinet posts, and the U.S. Senate seat now held by Sen. Bill Nelson (D).

It is fitting that Democratic leaders from across the U.S. met this past week in Orlando.

They gathered to discuss what went wrong in 2004, but more importantly, to figure out how to win in 2008. Florida could be the answer about how to win in 2008 — for both parties. Already cries of “Out with New Hampshire and Iowa and in with Florida!” are being heard.

For years, political party leaders from both sides of the aisle have grumbled about Iowa and New Hampshire being the starting places for the presidential nominating process. Several states have tried to buck the system to no avail. Michigan tried to move its primary to the same day as New Hampshire’s in 2004, only to be rebuffed by Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe. He threatened to take away half of Michigan’s delegations to the party convention in Boston if they refused to back down. The Michiganders blinked.

A different day is dawning. Both Michigan Sen. Carl Levin and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell have brought up the subject of revamping the presidential primary process. The reason is that neither Iowa nor New Hampshire mirrors the diversity of the U.S. voting population. This becomes a very big problem because the candidates who prevail in these first two primaries tend to secure the nomination shortly thereafter. It produces a nominee who has not been vetted as thoroughly as needed.

The Democratic Party would do well to look at using Florida as the more logical launching pad. The Republican Party, too. Both parties are likely to have very competitive primaries in 2008 because there will be no incumbent in office.

The 2004 exit polls show that Florida’s actual voter profile mirrored the nation’s demographic and political make-up far better than either Iowa or New Hampshire. The Sunshine State’s voters are strikingly similar to the nation’s racial/ethnic diversity, age, income, religion, education, and ideology.

There is little doubt that Florida will again be a battleground state in 2008. Winning then begins with fixing the nominating process now. Florida’s presidential preference primary date needs to be set earlier in the nominating calendar. Both parties would do well to consider this important time change.

Pre-election attacks on Florida’s voting system were fierce and relentless.

There were lawsuits challenging everything from the lack of paper trails for touch screen voting machines to the constitutionality of state laws requiring provisional ballots to be cast in the precinct in which a voter is registered for it to be counted. The lawsuits, plus news of teams of lawyers being recruited by political parties and advocacy groups to watch over the shoulders of local election officials and poll workers, led many analysts to predict that the state’s voters would give the system a failing grade when all was said and done. But they did not.

“The sky is falling” predictions of an election system meltdown were simply off base. Only 5% of the Floridians who voted in the 2004 presidential election said that their experiences were worse than in 2000 while 29% described them as better. The remainder said they were about the same.

Higher-than-average percentages of the youngest (31%) and oldest voters (32%), Hispanics (56%), early voters (36%), and touch screen-using voters (35%) said things got better. The most critical assessments came from African American voters. But to put things in perspective, 33% said their overall experience was better whereas just 12% said it was worse. Like other groups, most African Americans said things went about the same.

These results are from a survey of 800 Floridians who voted in Election 2004. It was conducted on November 2-3 for The Collins Center For Public Policy, Inc. by a team of Republican and Democratic pollsters (Barcelo & Company and Hamilton Beattie & Staff). The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.5% at the 95% confidence level.

Confidence Not Shaken by Pre-Election Attacks on System

Faith that the system works—and a belief that one’s vote will count—are critical to the sustenance of any democracy.

Almost 90% of those who voted in November said there was an excellent or good chance their vote would be counted.

The most positive ratings came from those who voted on Election Day at their regular precinct and those who voted early. Believe it or not, confidence levels of those who used touch screen or optical scan systems were higher than those of absentee balloters, although even 77% of the latter also said the chances their vote would be counted were excellent or good.

Voters Generally Confident Election Fraud Prevented

Prior to the election, concerns about fraud permeated Florida’s airwaves, newspaper stories, and the Internet. The state’s election officials were repeatedly attacked for what critics called a rather half-hearted approach to fraud prevention. Most of these criticisms stemmed from fears of potential tampering with touch screen voting machines and the lack of a paper trail. Others focused on possible absentee ballot abuses involving the elderly and mentally-incapacitated or the deceased and ineligible.

State and county election officials worked hard to counter citizen concerns about the integrity of the election system.

In the end, Florida voters seemed convinced that election officials had tried their best to head off fraud and to improve the vote-counting process.

The Collins Center survey asked: “In this year’s election, how confident do you feel that Florida has done everything it should to prevent election fraud and count all votes accurately: very confident, somewhat confident, not very confident, or not at all confident?” Eighty percent were either very (52%) or somewhat (28%) confident.

Good News For County Election Supervisors

This week, Florida’s supervisors of elections held their post-election conference in Orlando. They were undoubtedly overjoyed to learn that voters gave them and the electoral system they oversee pretty high marks, rather than the failing grade so many had expected.

Heading into the election, these county supervisors were stressed out, to say the least. Virtually every facet of their job was under attack—the voting equipment, absentee ballots, early voting, poll worker recruitment and training, precinct locations… you name it. (What many citizens do not realize is that under Florida law, local supervisors bear more of the legal responsibility for running elections than the state’s Division of Elections.) Plus the supervisors themselves, like other constitutional officers, were up for re-election.

And fresh in their minds were scenes of television satellite trucks parked outside the homes of several south Florida supervisors in the days following the 2000 election. You can bet each was praying there would be no repeat of 2000 anywhere in the state, but especially not in their own backyard.

Thank goodness for both the voters and the officials, there wasn’t.

Does this mean Election 2004 was perfect? Of course not.

But the criticisms this year are a far cry less catastrophic than those heard in 2000. Then, many bitterly complained that their votes did not count due to punch card ballots, confusing ballot designs (the butterfly), and the lack of clear, uniform recount rules in all 67 counties.

This year’s complaints stemmed from a larger-than-expected number of people voting early: “The lines were too long.” “There weren’t enough voting machines and the place where we voted was too crowded.” “It was hot.” “We needed water and more places to sit.”

Problems caused by a heavy turnout are much less serious—and easier to address—than those stemming from someone being disenfranchised when the vote they cast did not count.

No wonder more voters said things were better this year than said they were worse.

NOTE: Thanks to each of the more than 150 of you who helped with the USF-WFLA political communication project this Fall. From you, we have learned a great deal about how effectively the candidates, political parties, and advocacy groups targeted their messages in this swing area of the battleground state of Florida.

Ten Lessons Learned: 1. Young and first time voters felt ignored. These anxious voters clearly received little or no campaign literature via the mail. Nor did they get many of the phone calls that older voters received. Young and newly-registered voters repeatedly told us they were eager to be part of the process, then felt ignored when they saw their older friends and relatives being bombarded with attention. Said one young female voter: “Getting mail makes people feel special. It’s personal — as though that candidate is talking to just you, saying he/she needs your help, your vote. This is very powerful.” There is an important lesson here. Candidates and parties are missing the boat when their direct mail is targeted only at frequent voters (persons with a voting history discernible via Supervisor of Elections records) rather than infrequent and first time voters. This might explain why young voter turnout rates did not jump as much as anticipated.

2. New and first time voters, who received less communication, admitted they were more likely to vote across party lines and thus were anxious to receive ads and calls from both Democrats and Republicans —but they didn’t. What this tells us is that both parties and their candidates may benefit in the future from targeting younger, new, and infrequent voters from both sides of the political aisle, plus, of course, the independent voters. (By the way, independent — no party affiliation —voters did not receive the volume of mail that they anticipated as a consequence of their “swing” status. This confirms what the campaigns have admitted — in 2004, they targeted party registrants, both frequent and infrequent voters, more than they aimed at independents.)

3. Those who voted absentee or early continued to get mail, phone calls after they had already voted. Campaign consulting firms often brag about their ability to provide candidates and parties with up-to-date lists of who has already voted absentee or early. The ability to do so makes it easier for candidates and political parties to Get-Out-The-Vote on Election Day itself. Our study shows that these lists are not as refined as campaign specialists lead many to believe. Several USF students who volunteered to take people to the polls on Election Day for 527 groups like MoveOn.org or America Coming Together reported that when they contacted those on their purchased lists, many had already voted early. The impact was to waste resources that could have been better spent getting the harder-to-get voters to the polls on Election Day.

4. Spanish-speaking Floridians reported they got little communication in their native language. Spanish-speaking Democrats were very critical of the paucity of efforts by Democratic candidates to reach them in Spanish. Several reported getting more in Spanish from Republicans than Democrats. Typical were these comments from a Latino Democrat: “One thing the Republicans seemed to do better than the Democrats was advertising towards Hispanic voters…I personally found only one ad in Spanish for John Kerry. I would see tons of Viva Bush stickers, but nothing similar for Kerry…You would think the Democrats would have done more to reach out to Hispanic voters.” This is in sync with what has been reported by others — namely, that the data base used by the Florida Democratic Party was not refined enough to identify Latino registrants. But the ability to identify Latino voters plagues both parties, especially for persons whose last name is not an easily-recognizable Hispanic name, often due to marriage.

5. Internet ads were not as visible or as widely used as Internet-using voters expected them to be. They were more likely to focus on urging people to register or vote than on specific candidates or issues. Younger voters seem particularly distressed that e-mail communication from campaigns was aimed at fund-raising more than at informing voters about issue stances. Said one young voter: “Although I surf the net frequently, I couldn’t find [many] advertisements that swayed me one way or the other.” Another had even more detailed criticisms and recommendations: “One e-mail that I really did like was the one Kerry sent out outlining his plan for the war in Iraq a few days before the first debate. It was very detailed and seemed really well thought out…[If an e-mail] only looked like they were asking for money, then I would delete it. I tried to at least skim over the ones providing information.” The same observer said she liked e-mails with information about volunteer opportunities and personal appearances. The problem was that they arrived too late: “I wish they could have been sent out at least a week ahead of time so I could have arranged my schedule to participate in more events.”

6. The most common forms of targeting were by age, gender, race/ethnicity, and ideology. Radio seemed to be the most successful medium at targeting young African American and religious conservative voters. Especially effective were the ads run by 527 groups and Democrats on hip hop stations that urged blacks to vote for Democrats as a way to protect their civil liberties and anti-partial birth abortion ads aired on country stations by the Bush campaign. However, radio does not have the reach it once did because so many people listen to the CD player in their car rather than to the radio.

The placement and content of television ads was particularly sensitive to age: “During Wheel of Fortune, a person would likely see an ad that talked about health care, Social Security and drug costs. During a television show like Friends, employment, the economy, and Iraq (higher priorities of younger voters) were the focus of ads.” Women candidates, like Betty Castor, ran ads during women’s programs like Oprah Winfrey. But gender-targeted ads mostly came in the form of direct mail or in recorded phone calls from female or male celebrities.

7. Recorded phone calls from celebrities are still a hit but were more effective at reinforcing vote choices and strengthening the recipient’s likelihood of voting than in changing opinions. A female Bush supporter’s response to such a call is typical: “I really enjoyed receiving a ‘phone call’ from President Bush. I am a strong Bush supporter and really loved having his voice on my answering machine. It made the campaign seem more real and it made me believe (for a second or two) that Bush was really reaching out to me, personally. The message is saved on my machine and will be for awhile.”

8. The Republican Party and the 527 advocacy groups had more precisely-targeted ads than the Democratic Party per se. Part of the explanation for this pattern was funding. The 527 advocacy groups were unlimited in the amount of money they could raise or the sources from which it could be raised. But the Republican Party’s edge over the Democrats is attributable to its more multi-media approach. An article that appeared in the Washington Post featuring an interview with Ken Mehlman, the Bush-Cheney campaign manager, reported that “the Bush campaign spent heavily on such nontraditional sources as national cable networks, African American and Christian radio, and Spanish-language media.” “The campaign bought local radio advertising adjacent to rush-hour traffic reports and beamed ads into health clubs with their own TV networks.” Each of these unique mediums is more easily targeted than traditional broadcast television ads aired primarily around news programming.

9. Negative ads ruled the day. This was most obvious in the U.S. Senate race between Republican Mel Martinez and Democrat Betty Castor and in the amendment-related ads (especially the doctor v. lawyer ads). Negative ads on television got the most voter attention. No one liked them — but all said they were effective…and memorable.

10. The most effective communication strategy is a multi-faceted one that creates a “brand.” One of our USF-WFLA observers said it best: “I think it is your total campaign as a package that gets people’s attention. Overall, I cannot say that either side ran a bad campaign, it is just that one side was definitely more effective than the other. Bush did a great job getting his name out there. He had the total package — signs, bumper stickers, t-shirts, yard signs, and commercials. The Bush Campaign was constantly in my face the entire campaign — their name was everywhere. The Kerry Campaign did not do enough to get their name out there. I think the ads and signs themselves were great; there just were not enough of them. I even went to the Tampa Kerry campaign headquarters and they did not have any merchandise to buy or give out. There were tons of people there asking for it. The same holds true for the people who visited our USF class. The Bush campaign brought advertisements and the Kerry campaign did not.”

One thing is for sure: We saw it all here in the Tampa Bay area! It’s hard to believe that in a number of non-competitive states, voters saw few or no ads from either the Bush-Cheney or Kerry-Edwards campaigns. That’s why our area continues to be a key “proving ground” for political campaign strategies and tactics.

When the polls closed at 7 p.m. on November 2, nearly everyone expected the presidential race in Florida to end up being so close that a recount would be needed — a replay of 2000. Nothing could have been further from the truth. President Bush easily won the state by a 5% margin over Sen. John Kerry (52%-47%).

The Florida results shocked the pollsters. The bulk of their pre-election polls either predicted a tie or had Kerry up by a point or two on Election Day. (PS: The most accurate prediction came from none other than Governor Jeb Bush. He forecasted a 4% win for his brother on national TV talk shows the Sunday preceding the election.)

In a repeat of the 2002 mid-term election, Republicans bested Democrats at the turnout game. It wasn’t that Florida Democrats did that badly. As Chuck Todd of the National Journal has pointed out, “Democrats over-performed [in raw numbers] with every base voting group they targeted. They received more votes in Florida than they thought they needed.” It’s just that Florida Republicans did even better. Republicans made up 41% of the voting public this year compared to just 38% in 2000. The reverse pattern was true for Florida Democrats (40%--2000; 37%--2004).

The results have prompted many to ask the inevitable question: Is Florida now a red state rather than a competitive state? This represents the third election in a row that Florida Republicans have won the top race on the ballot (president—2000; governor—2002; president—2004).

Florida Bucks National Trends

Several results in our state have not received the attention they deserve. They go counter to national trends: (1) terrorism was the number one issue in Florida among voters; (2) Hispanics outnumbered blacks at the polls in Florida for the first time in modern history; and (3) the youth vote actually increased as a share of the electorate. A fourth result worth attention showed that the GOP made slightly bigger gains among African Americans in Florida than in the U.S. at large.

Terrorism #1 Issue in Florida

Nationally, moral values was the most important reason affecting voters’ choice for president. But in Florida, it was terrorism (24% v. 20% for moral issues). This fact has gotten little attention in most post-election analyses in spite of the fact that throughout the campaign, most Florida opinion polls showed terrorism to be the highest priority issue. The only exceptions were a few polls close to Election Day — giving the Kerry campaign hope as those polls were the only ones showing Kerry in the lead.

Terrorism simply was — and is — a bigger issue in Florida than elsewhere for many reasons: our larger-than-average number of military installations, deep water ports, commercial and private airports; the state’s extensive coast line — the longest of any state; and Florida-based terrorism incidents and impacts - the anthrax death in south Florida, the flight school training of the terrorists who flew into the World Trade Centers, and the devastating economic impact of 9/11 on the state’s tourism-based economy.

From the start, the Kerry campaign (and the Betty Castor U.S. Senate campaign) understood that to carry Florida, they would have to change the subject from terrorism and homeland security to domestic issues. It was just beginning to work when the national news coverage reverted back to terrorism-related stories (the missing explosives in Iraq followed by the release of the Osama Bin Laden tape).

As I have said many times this election season, fear of personal safety trumps even pocketbook issues. (To drive home this point when speaking to various groups, I always talk about what happens in local elections when a crime wave is washing over a community. In such a situation, everything else becomes a secondary issue.)

Hispanics Surpass African American Voters For First Time

The 2004 election in Florida represents a seismic shift in the minority make-up of the Florida electorate. For the first time in Florida history, Hispanic voters made up a larger portion of those who voted than African Americans.

In 2000, blacks comprised 15% of the Florida electorate and Hispanics 11%.

In 2004, Hispanics made up 15% and blacks 12%.

This is an extremely significant development — one that poses a real challenge to the Florida Democratic Party which lost ground to the GOP this election. The Hispanic vote in 2000 was Bush, 49%- Gore 48%. In 2004, it was 56%-Bush, 44%-Kerry - a gain of 7% for the GOP.

The Youth Vote Increased in Florida

As we predicted way back when this election season began, the youth vote in Florida did go up this year. Nobody seems to have noticed this. Yet the proportion of the electorate aged 18-29 increased from 15% in 2000 to 17% in 2004.

Even here the GOP improved its reach, although only slightly. Bush got 1% more of this vote in 2004 than in 2000. But Democrats still hold the edge here: Kerry, 58%; Bush, 41%.

Florida’s younger voters turned out at higher rates than their counterparts in other states for several reasons: (1) both parties more heavily targeted the youth vote than in 2000; (2) the competitiveness of the race in a key battleground state; (3) more opportunities to attend events at which the candidates appeared; (4) memories of the closeness of 2000 which served to reinforce the notion that one vote could make a difference in the outcome; and (5) a more vigorous outreach campaign by Florida’s supervisors of elections aimed at high school seniors and college students.

Other observations:

Moral Values: Prompt GOP Gains Among Conservatives, Catholics, & Blacks

The degree to which Republicans would successfully lure social conservatives (of all races and ethnicities) to the polls was a big question mark heading into the election. (It was one of our Election Day questions.)

By now, it is quite evident that the GOP gained votes from social and religious conservatives, perhaps most noticeably from Catholics, Hispanics, and blacks.

Conservatives made up 34% of Florida’s voters in 2004 — up from 31% in 2000. Among conservatives, 86% supported President Bush compared to 77% in 2000.

Catholics made up a higher proportion of the electorate in 2004 than in 2000 (28% v. 25%). Among Catholics, 57% voted for Bush in 2004 v. 54% in 2000.

As previously noted, Hispanic support for Bush increased from 49% in 2000 to 56% in 2004. Much of this increase undoubtedly came from socially conservative Hispanic Catholics.

Bush nearly doubled his support among blacks in Florida in 2004 (from 7% to 13%)—an increase exceeding that at the national level (from 9% to 11%). By most accounts, Bush’s gains came from African American religious conservatives, voucher supporters, and advocates of faith-based initiatives.

The national and state media were shocked by the importance of moral values as a vote cue. They shouldn’t have been. There were plenty of warning signs that the public was disgusted with the “trashing” of America, beginning with outrage stemming from Janet Jackson’s revealing halftime show episode at the Super Bowl. Other rather obvious cues included the extent to which the nation was captivated by the Passion of the Christ movie, the intensity with which the nation grieved over the death of President Ronald Reagan and revered in the moral attributes of his life, and the rejection of gay marriage in a moderate swing state (Missouri) where turnout reached record levels for a primary election.

By the way, my guess is that some who said the country was on the wrong track said so for moral reasons — and ended up supporting the president. This undoubtedly explains why this traditional vote predictor statistic (percent saying the country is headed in the wrong direction) turned out to be inaccurate in 2004. Usually if a majority of those surveyed say the country is headed in the wrong direction, it spells defeat for the incumbent. Clearly, that did not happen.

All Eyes on the Bellwether Areas:

Hillsborough County Maintains Its “Bellwether” Status

At least since 1980, as Hillsborough County has voted for president, so has Florida. The record was kept intact in 2004. The margin of victory for the president in Florida was 5%. In Hillsborough County, the margin was somewhat higher: 6.7% (53.0% Bush to 46.3% Kerry).

I-4 Corridor Keeps Its Reputation as the Swing Part of the State

On Election Night, all eyes were on the returns coming in from the counties making up the I-4 Corridor. When Bush won counties that he lost in 2000 (Pasco, Pinellas, and Hernando on the Tampa end; Flagler and Osceola on the Orlando end), and did better in Polk (+5%), Hillsborough (+3%), and Orange (+1.6%), the networks painted the state “red.”

It truly turned out to be the “highway to heaven” for President Bush. The final results in the Corridor mirrored the final results pattern and reaffirmed the area’s reputation as the state’s “bellwether” swing region.

Bush actually visited other counties in addition to Hillsborough (Tampa) and Orange (Orlando). The president’s I-4 Corridor campaign stops included Pasco (New Port Richey), Pinellas (St. Petersburg), Brevard (Melbourne), and Polk (Lakeland; Lake Wales—after the hurricanes) counties. Going to these suburban and more rural counties was a key part of the highly successful Republican Get-Out-The-Vote strategy — one borrowed directly from brother Jeb’s own campaign playbook. (Jeb’s initial victory in 1998 featured the now infamous bus tour through the more rural parts of the state. It yielded high voter turnout and large vote margins that were seen as vital to his win.)

A Closer Look at Some Key Demographic Targets:

The Cuban Vote: Some Democratic Gains But Not Enough

Prior to the election, Democrats aimed to get the same level of vote within the Cuban community as had President Bill Clinton in 1996 (around 40%). Their hope was that the Bush administration’s more restrictive Cuba travel policy would do the trick. But Kerry received only 35% of this vote — still an improvement over what Gore received in 2000 but short of the goal. Bush ended up receiving 63% of the Cuban vote in 2004 according to a precinct-level analysis by the Miami Herald.

The Non-Cuban (Puerto Rican) Vote

Florida Republicans appear to have made some gains among the growing swing Puerto Rican vote in central Florida, continuing a pattern observed in the 2002 governor’s race when that vote went for Republican Jeb Bush. (The non-Cuban Hispanic vote split in the 2000 presidential race.)

Osceola County, home to a sizable Puerto Rican population, voted for the Democrat Gore in 2000 but for Jeb Bush in 2004. In 2004 in the State House District 49 race covering Orange and Osceola counties, Republican incumbent John Quinones, a Puerto Rican, won re-election over his Democratic competitor, Israel Mercado, also a Puerto Rican by a 52% to 48% margin.

The Jewish Vote in South Florida: Some Republican Gains

Consistent with national trends, the GOP made some in-roads into this traditionally Democratic bloc, although not as many as the Republicans had hoped for. Bush received 20% of the Jewish vote in Florida this year—up slightly from 2000. Jewish voters made up a larger portion of the electorate this year, too (5% vs. 4% in 2000).

The GOP brought in several high profile Jewish politicos to court the south Florida Jewish vote: Ed Koch (former Democratic mayor of New York City), Rudy Giuliani, former Republican mayor of New York City whose wife is Jewish, Ari Fleischer, former press secretary for President Bush, and U.S. Senator Norm Coleman from Minnesota.

Democrats matched them by bringing in Joseph and Hadassah Lieberman and Sen. Kerry’s son, Cameron, who is a convert to Judaism.

Florida’s Women Voters: GOP Gains; An Even Split

Women continue to make up the majority of the Florida electorate (54% in both 2000 and 2004). President Bush garnered 5% more of the female vote than he did in 2000: 50% v. 45%. He actually received 50% of the 2004 vote to Kerry’s 49% - a marked reversal from 2000 when Democrat Al Gore won 53% of the women’s vote.

Both parties targeted infrequent or non-voting women. Democrats heavily targeted minority and single women. Republicans aimed at married women with children, who are mostly white. Republicans won this battle. Non-white women made up only 16% of the voters while white women made up 38%. White females heavily leaned toward Bush (55%) while non-white females were among the staunchest supporters of Kerry (75%).

Looking Ahead to 2006:

Castor Vote Seen as Source of Democratic Hope for 2006

Florida Democrats see the results of the Mel Martinez-Betty Castor U.S. Senate race as a better measure of the party’s competitive strength in statewide contests than the 2004 presidential race. In that race, Republican Martinez bested Democrat Castor by a single percentage point (49%-48%).

But using this race as an indicator of Democratic competitiveness may lead one to conclude that the state is more in-play for Democrats than it really is. If the votes received by Veterans’ Party candidate Dennis Bradley (2%) are added to the Republican total (49%), the margin looks slightly more in line with the presidential vote margin. It is also likely that some of Castor’s vote came from Republicans who were disgusted with Martinez’s attack on Bill McCollum in the party primary.

Nonetheless, Castor’s performance is a major source of hope for Florida’s Democrats as they look ahead to what undoubtedly will be tough races in 2006: the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democrat Bill Nelson; governor; and the three Cabinet posts (Attorney General, Chief Financial Office, and Commissioner of Agriculture).

Once again, Florida will be in the spotlight as the returns are counted tonight. Will we be a red state or a blue state?

What will the prognosticators be looking for this evening as the votes are tallied? Here’s my list:

1. Will the African American turnout rate equal or exceed that of 2000? Black turnout in that election was 72% but it plummeted to 43% in 2002 — even with President Bush’s brother on the ballot when the memories of 2000 were still fresh. Democrats will have a tough time carrying Florida if black turnout falls below the rate in 2000. One early warning signal was a light African American turnout in the August 31 primary. Another warning sign: national polls show President Bush gaining slightly among blacks. A positive sign for Democrats: African Americans have been turning out in droves to vote early pushed there by memories of 2000.

2. Can Democrats post gains among Cuban Americans who oppose President Bush’s tough travel-to-Cuba policy? Democrats are hoping to pull around 40% of this vote which is close to what Bill Clinton won in 1996 before the Elian Gonzalez fiasco drove many back to voting Republican. Mel Martinez, the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate, is seen as the party’s best ammunition against Democratic gains in South Florida’s Cuban population. Polls show Cubans more heavily supporting Martinez for the Senate than Bush for president. There is a generational schism within the Cuban community; older Cubans heavily favor President Bush; younger Cubans are more evenly split between Bush and Kerry.

3. Can Republicans actually turn out the infrequent social conservative voters? The GOP estimates that approximately 1 million of these Bush-sympathetic voters did not go to the polls in 2000. The party is hopeful that issues such as parental notification, tort reform, religious issues (gay marriage, under God in the pledge of allegiance), and the need to appoint conservative judges will be enough to turn these voters out in 2004.

4. Will an even higher portion of the important Catholic vote go to Bush this time out? In the 2000 election, Catholics made up 26% of Florida’s voters. They supported Bush over Gore 54% to 42%. Catholic religious leaders have made much stronger statements on the abortion and gay marriage issues in 2004. The GOP hopes turnout will be high among Catholics — and that Catholics driven to the polls by these key moral issues will vote for Bush.

5. Will President Bush make inroads into the Jewish vote in south Florida? Jewish voters, who made up 5% of the state’s voters in 2000, traditionally lean heavily Democratic. National polls have shown Bush making some inroads into this Democratic bloc. But this trend has not been evident in pre-election Florida polls. Republicans still believe they will make gains here. Democrats say, “no way.”

6. Will younger and newly-registered voters turn out at a higher rate this year? In 2000, 18-29 year olds made up only 15% of Florida’s electorate. All signs point to an increase in this large untapped pool of voters in 2004. Democrats have worked hard to reel in this demographic group; it has been a key part of their Get Out The Vote strategy from the beginning of the race. Florida polls to date have shown that younger voters lean Democratic but that Republicans do better among younger voters in our state than in other states. Younger voters tend to be more independent than other age groups and make up a high proportion of the newly-registered voters.

7. Will non-college-educated women who only occasionally vote do so in 2004? Both parties have targeted this large, but heterogeneous, group. Republicans have aimed their efforts at young married women with children, the conservatives and home-schoolers. Democrats have targeted single moms in blue collar jobs. In 2000, working women made up only 31% of all women voters. Both parties are optimistic that they can get “their infrequently voting women” to the polls. But will they?

8. Who will win the all-important I-4 Corridor? A staggering 43% of all Florida registered voters live in counties served by the Tampa and Orlando media markets. This is the most heavily contested and up-for-grabs part of the state. Four counties are of particular interest: Hillsborough, Orange, Pinellas, and Polk. Hillsborough (Tampa) is considered the bellwether county in the state. Since 1980, as Hillsborough County has voted, so goes Florida. Democrats make up a majority of the registrants but it is the independent vote that makes the difference here. Orange is considered a key to determining whether the non-Cuban Hispanic vote (largely Puerto Rican) will go Democratic or Republican. Orange County voted Democratic in 2000 (for Gore) but Republican in 2002 (for Jeb Bush for governor). Pinellas is seen as a measure of the success of GOTV efforts by Republicans. Pinellas County voted Democratic in 2000 in spite of Republicans holding the upper hand in registration. The Republican Party of Pinellas County is considered to be the most organized in the state. Polk County, hit by three hurricanes, is seen as a swing county due to major population growth since 2000.

9. Will it be security, the War in Iraq, the economy, or health care? We do know that the War on Terror has more relevance to Floridians than to citizens in many other states. The state’s tourism-related economy suffered dramatically after 9/11 when visitors were afraid to fly into the state. Several of the terrorists got their flight training here. And south Florida was the scene of an anthrax attack. Florida is also quite vulnerable from an infrastructure perspective, with its 21 military installations, 14 deep water ports, 20 commercial airports, and 700+ private airports. But issues like Social Security, Medicare, and prescription drugs are high profile as well, with the state’s large senior and Boomer populations. And don’t forget about taxes; Florida has a long history of anti-tax votes. The sleeper issue here is always health care. If exit polls show domestic issues are preeminent concerns of a majority of Floridians, Kerry will likely carry the state. If it’s homeland security and terrorism, Bush takes it.

10. How many absentee ballots will be uncounted and/or challenged at the end of the evening? If the vote count is as close as the polls suggest, the election in Florida may very well come down to absentee ballots. Many will arrive on Election Day or after (overseas). There will not be time on election night for the individual county canvassing boards to open and review these ballots. Our ability to declare a winner in Florida before Wednesday is tied to the number of these ballots relative to the vote margin without them.

Get ready for a long, but exciting evening!

Everyone wants to know why Florida is so close again in 2004 after adding 1,548,573 more voters to the rolls since 2000. The explanation is simple. It’s reflected in an old expression: “The more things change, the more they stay the same.”

A comparison of the registration figures for the two election years reveals a startling similarity in the partisan breakdowns:

In 2000, 43.5 percent of registered voters were Democrats; 39.2 percent Republican - a difference of 4.3 percent.

In 2004, 41.4 percent are Democrats; 37.8 percent are Republican - a difference of 3.6 percent.

If anything, the difference between the two parties in 2004 is even narrower than in 2000. Both parties lost ground as more Floridians registered as independent “no party affiliation.”

In the 2000 presidential election, exit polls show that the state’s independent voters split their votes evenly between Al Gore (D) and George W. Bush (R). Polls in 2004 show a similar, though slightly fluctuating, pattern.

Looking at it historically, it all adds up. Florida is close again because it is even more competitive from a partisan perspective than it was in 2000.

Early voting (in person voting at selected locations) has been wildly popular in Florida this year.

Newspaper accounts across Florida tell of the camaraderie that exists among those standing in line for hours. They talk of various groups and individuals who are making the wait more palatable by passing out water and pizza. Musicians have even showed up at some polling places to entertain the determined-to-vote crowd.

Early voting reminds many football fans of a giant tail-gate party in the hot Florida sun.

Ironically, early voting has re-created a sense of community that opponents initially thought would be lost by extending in-person voting over a two-week period. This communal impact has been missed by many in the media who have been focusing more on the reasons for the long lines than on the “bonding” of those waiting to do their democratic duty (and feeling good about it).

The reasons for the popularity of early voting are many. In my mingling with voters, there are seven that I hear most:

• I want to make sure my vote is cast. I don’t want to risk having something unexpected occur on Election Day, including dying, that would keep me from voting.
• I am afraid that the lines will be even longer on Election Day.
• Going early helps me avoid the predicted hordes of lawyers, poll watchers, and TV cameras that will be there on Election Day.
• Someone is able to take me to the polls on the weekend but not during the week.
• I don’t have the time to wait in line during the week that I do on the weekend.
• The likelihood of a terrorist- or law-enforcement-related incident occurring is greater on November 2 than before.
• I already know who I am going to vote for and no new ad is going to change my mind. I don’t plan to turn on the television set until after Election Day. I’m over and done with the whole thing!

We don’t yet know what percent of Florida voters will take advantage of pre-election day voting opportunities but we expect it to be high. The popularity of the process is very likely to prompt the Florida Legislature to pass new laws allowing counties to offer more early voting sites in future elections.

But isn’t it great to see neighbors meeting neighbors—and at voting precincts of all places?!

’Tis the season when newspapers announce their candidate endorsements—usually with much pomp and circumstance—and their recommendations on various proposed amendments. A review of the editorial positions of 14 of Florida’s daily newspapers shows more agreement on the amendments than on the presidency. (By my count, as of October 24, 7 have endorsed Kerry, 2 support Bush and 1 more is likely to by Sunday, while 4 have chosen to endorse neither.)

Editorial boards are recommending a “No” vote on most of the proposed amendments. Their biggest beef is that most are inappropriate for inclusion in the state’s constitution. In fact, the only amendment on which there is unanimity among the editorial writers is the one calling for the removal of a previously-adopted amendment (repeal of the high speed rail amendment).

Here’s the rundown for the newspapers weighing in on each amendment (some did not):